Summary
As of July 1, the total projected enrollment for all institutions (public and TAG-eligible private institutions) will grow from fall 2022’s total of 553,296 to 550,401 in the fall of 2029 (2023 was the final year of asking for eight years of projections to coincide with the 2030 goal described below) with eleven private institutions having not submitted or finalized their reporting. Those eleven institutions represent a total enrollment in fall 2024 of 16,463 students. If held flat, that would suggest a total headcount enrollment in fall 2029 of almost 567,000 students. Staff does not believe it reasonable to assume that most institutions can assume a worst, or even a best case, of level enrollment over the next five years.
The Western Interstate Compact for Higher Education (WICHE) in their 2024 projections of high school graduates, projected 91,213 graduates compared to 94,328 actual graduates from public high schools. The anticipated peak between now and 2029 is this year, with 95,937 graduates and a decline through 2033, with a peak in 2034 and continued decline to 83,941 in 2042. While typically these projections have been found to be conservative and understate the actual numbers below, staff is of the opinion that they may overstate the supply of high school graduates in that they may contain approximately 5% undocumented students each year.
The Higher Ed Immigration Portal, a project that exists to advocate for Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA students), undocumented, refugee, other immigrants, and international students estimates in 2018 there were approximately 5,000 undocumented students graduating from Virginia high schools annually, and 13,122 undocumented students in Virginia higher education. Beyond these numbers, they estimate 62,000 first generation immigrants (born abroad and immigrated to the U.S.) and 85,000 second generation immigrants (U.S. -born individuals with at least one immigrant parent) also enrolled in Virginia colleges and universities. In all likelihood, given that these estimates are seven years old, the numbers are probably a bit larger and they represent a risk factor to institutional enrollment as current United States policy is aimed at reducing the presence of these individuals.
The American Immigration Council, using American Community Survey microdata from 2023, estimates 258,800 undocumented immigrants living in Virginia. They further estimate 12,700 DACA-eligible residents, with 12,441 having been granted DACA status. From SCHEV’s records, we know that in fall 2024, there were 334 DACA students enrolled at the public institutions. This represents a steady decrease from fall 2019 in which 1,288 DACA students were reported to us. Further, in fall 2024, 228 undocumented students were reported as enrolled at Virginia public institutions.
The Higher Ed Immigration Portal also tracks the enrollment of international students. Last fall (2024), Virginia institutions enrolled 22,414 such students. According to one public institution, the current political landscape appears to have caused a 40% drop in international enrollment from fall to spring semester. Staff have no way to verify this occurrence or determine if this was a common trend across institutions until later this summer when the course enrollment files are submitted by each institution. This will be a top study priority as the submission of those files coincides with most of the six-year planning meetings.
Final Changes to Student Financial in the Budget Reconciliation Act
The National Association for Student Financial Aid Administrators (NASFAA) reports these changes to federal aid in the final budget adopted:
Pell grants will be available to students enrolled in short-term workforce credential programs (such as those in the Commonwealth’s Workforce Credential Grant Program). This could lead to a dramatic shift in attendance for many students away from traditional programs and invite new players into the noncredit space among accredited institutions as competition for VCCS and others in the WCGP program.
Pell grants no longer available to students who receive grants or scholarships covering their entire cost of attendance, even if otherwise eligible for a Pell grant. Pell grants will also not be available to students with a Student Aid Index (SAI) exceeding twice the annual Pell grant award.Staff cannot yet model the impact of this change as this past year was the first use of the SAI and we will not have the student financial files until late fall.
Other changes involve restrictions or limits on (Parent) PLUS loans. Last year, 5,695 undergraduates relied on (Parent) PLUS. Current proposals include maximum cumulative loans of $65,000 per student and annual borrowing caps of $20,000 per student, which would directly impact 1,537 of 5,695 students with parent borrowers, with 378 of these students also receiving the current maximum Pell award.
Graduate PLUS loans are eliminated effective July1, 2026. The remaining federal graduate loan program now has annual limits of $20,500 for graduate students and $50,000 for professional students. The aggregate limit for graduate programs is now $100,000 and $200,000 for professional students. While there are no changes to existing undergraduate loan limits, there is now a lifetime limit of $275,000 on all federal loans. In 2023-24, this limit would have impacted at least 1,753 students/graduates who have federal loan totals in excess of the new limit to a maximum of $622,896. We say "at least" here because we do know the loan amounts of students who completed their undergraduate education outside Virginia, or at a Virginia instituion not covered in our collections. Of the 1,753 students or graduates described above, 1,260 had no undergraduate federal loans, 54% had borrowed for graduate programs only, 32% for professional programs only, and the remaining 14% for a mix of graduate and professional education.
Finally, quoting directly from NASFAA, there is a new accountability measure:
The law does not include a risk-sharing model, but it does create an accountability measure for institutions. For undergraduate programs, the provision compares the median earnings of completers four years after program completion with the earnings of “working adults” with only a high school degree or GED who are not enrolled in higher education. For graduate programs, it compares the median earnings four years post-enrollment with the earnings of “working adults” with only a bachelor’s degree who are not enrolled in higher education.
Programs failing to meet this earnings threshold in 2 of 3 years will lose eligibility to participate in the Direct Loan Program, with the option to reapply after 2 years. After one year of failure, institutions have to provide disclosures to students. This measure would become effective on July 1, 2026.
Our current version of this kind of measure uses three years post-completion and can be found on the College Outcomes site in the factpacks. Adjusting this to four-years and creating program-level views of the data will be added to the site.
In the absence of the full availability of what is currently in negotiation between the House and Senate, staff are of the opinion that institutions’ enrollment projections and degree estimates may be fundamentally flawed and therefore sent back to the institutions for review and reconsideration given all these factors and returned to SCHEV prior to August 1st, 2025.